Wildlife Trafficking Route Analysis

50 seizures of pangolin scales, tiger parts, and exotic birds over 3 years. Students will map complete trafficking networks and identify kingpins.

# Aplly.xyz Case Study Submission

## Title
Wildlife Trafficking Route Analysis

## Type
Environmental Crime Investigation

## Difficulty
Intermediate

## Estimated Time
60 minutes

## Overview
50 seizures of pangolin scales, tiger parts, and exotic birds over 3 years. Students will map complete trafficking networks and identify kingpins.

## Case Details

Function Focus: Environmental Crime Investigation — manual reasoning, decomposition, and critical judgment (no spreadsheet or AI tool permitted in Phase 1)

Scenario:
You are the analyst at a fictional consultancy ("Praxis Advisors") tasked with answering: Wildlife Trafficking Route Analysis. You have a clean, synthetic dataset described below. You must produce a defensible answer using structured reasoning — no tool-assisted shortcut on the first pass.

Dataset Structure:
- seizure_id
- date
- location
- species
- parts_seized
- estimated_value_rs
- origin_state
- transit_states
- destination
- transport_mode
- concealment_method
- poaching_hotspot_nearby
- protected_area_involved
- international_route
- arrests_made
- ngo_involved

Tasks:
1. List the records and separate evidence types; classify each as primary/secondary/circumstantial by hand.
2. Identify the most probable source/location using spatial or attribute clustering and distance/direction reasoning.
3. Quantify the scale of impact (area, volume, cost) with back-of-envelope estimation and explicit assumptions.
4. Evaluate the strongest counter-hypothesis (natural vs. man-made, accidental vs. deliberate) and decide using the data.
5. After your manual reasoning, cross-check the numbers with a calculator/spreadsheet and note discrepancies.

Expected Output:
A one-page investigation memo: source hypothesis, evidence classification, impact quantification, counter-hypothesis ruling.

Evaluation Criteria:
Quality of source attribution reasoning, correct scale quantification, balanced hypothesis evaluation.

## Data Sources

| seizure_id | date | location | species | parts_seized | estimated_value_rs | origin_state | transit_states | destination | transport_mode | concealment_method | poaching_hotspot_nearby | protected_area_involved | international_route | arrests_made | ngo_involved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closed | Unresolved | High | Pending | Positive | Secure | Kolkata | Rural | Under investigation | | Bangalore | Under investigation | Under investigation | 0 | Active | No |
| SEI-0159-002 | N/A | N/A | SPE-0159-002 | 2026-03-15 | 12.5 | Arrested | Negative | DES-0159-002 | 12.5 | 2026-04-15 | Chennai | PRO-0159-002 | 3.5 | 100000 | Rural |
| True | Compromised | 100000 | Negative | Yes | EST-0159-003 | Inactive | Kolkata | 25000 | Inconclusive | No | Confirmed | Inactive | No | 100000 | No |
| SEI-0159-004 | Not detected | LOC-0159-004 | 3.5 | Closed | EST-0159-004 | Inactive | Negative | 85 | Under investigation | Unresolved | Confirmed | 2026-03-15 | Inconclusive | Rural | NGO-0159-004 |
| Resolved | DAT-0159-005 | Delhi | Dropped | Bangalore | EST-0159-005 | 12.5 | 0 | Rural | Unresolved | Bangalore | Inconclusive | Medium | No | ARR-0159-005 | Delhi |
| Chennai | False | Inconclusive | Bangalore | Resolved | Closed | ORI-0159-006 | Rural | | Under investigation | Detected | Arrested | 2026-03-15 | Bangalore | ARR-0159-006 | 100000 |
| Delhi | Dropped | Confirmed | 3.5 | Yes | Closed | ORI-0159-007 | Urban | Secure | Medium | 2026-03-15 | Yes | Mumbai | Chennai | ARR-0159-007 | Detected |
| Medium | Urban | 100000 | SPE-0159-008 | Secure | 2026-03-15 | Kolkata | 85 | DES-0159-008 | Filed | Delhi | Bangalore | 25000 | False | ARR-0159-008 | Yes |
| 2026-04-01 | Arrested | Compromised | Detected | Kolkata | Under investigation | Resolved | Delhi | 2026-04-15 | Dropped | 25000 | Not detected | Delhi | Positive | 25000 | 85 |
| Dropped | 1 | 100000 | Filed | PAR-0159-010 | Inactive | ORI-0159-010 | False | 2026-04-01 | Active | Closed | Active | No | | Closed | 0 |


Full dataset: https://github.com/arora200/aplly_case_db/datasets/107-enviro-wildlife-trafficking (synthetic, 12 records)

## Solution Frameworks
Source identification & dispersion reasoning, impact assessment, satellite/remote-sensing triangulation, regulatory checklist

## Solver Guidance & Tutorials
_Solver guidance added by the pipeline (tutorial links) — see `solver_guidance` field._

## What You'll Learn
- Attribute a source from scattered evidence
- Quantify impact with estimation
- Argue against your own hypothesis

## Tags
Wildlife Trafficking, Network Analysis, International Crime, Conservation

## Registration Links
Register as Solver / Register as Evaluator