Illegal Mining Detection and Impact Assessment

Satellite imagery revealed 500 acres illegally mined in forest reserve over 5 years. Students will quantify damage and trace financial flows.

# Aplly.xyz Case Study Submission

## Title
Illegal Mining Detection and Impact Assessment

## Type
Environmental Crime Investigation

## Difficulty
Intermediate

## Estimated Time
60 minutes

## Overview
Satellite imagery revealed 500 acres illegally mined in forest reserve over 5 years. Students will quantify damage and trace financial flows.

## Case Details

Function Focus: Environmental Crime Investigation — manual reasoning, decomposition, and critical judgment (no spreadsheet or AI tool permitted in Phase 1)

Scenario:
You are the analyst at a fictional consultancy ("Praxis Advisors") tasked with answering: Illegal Mining Detection and Impact Assessment. You have a clean, synthetic dataset described below. You must produce a defensible answer using structured reasoning — no tool-assisted shortcut on the first pass.

Dataset Structure:
- incident_id
- date
- location_area_type
- mineral_mined
- estimated_tonnage
- area_affected_hectares
- water_table_drop_m
- vegetation_loss_pct
- air_quality_degradation
- noise_pollution_db
- blast_reported
- equipment_seized
- arrests_made
- restoration_ordered
- compensation_imposed_rs

Tasks:
1. List the records and separate evidence types; classify each as primary/secondary/circumstantial by hand.
2. Identify the most probable source/location using spatial or attribute clustering and distance/direction reasoning.
3. Quantify the scale of impact (area, volume, cost) with back-of-envelope estimation and explicit assumptions.
4. Evaluate the strongest counter-hypothesis (natural vs. man-made, accidental vs. deliberate) and decide using the data.
5. After your manual reasoning, cross-check the numbers with a calculator/spreadsheet and note discrepancies.

Expected Output:
A one-page investigation memo: source hypothesis, evidence classification, impact quantification, counter-hypothesis ruling.

Evaluation Criteria:
Quality of source attribution reasoning, correct scale quantification, balanced hypothesis evaluation.

## Data Sources

| incident_id | date | location_area_type | mineral_mined | estimated_tonnage | area_affected_hectares | water_table_drop_m | vegetation_loss_pct | air_quality_degradation | noise_pollution_db | blast_reported | equipment_seized | arrests_made | restoration_ordered | compensation_imposed_rs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INC-0158-001 | Secure | 42 | Under investigation | Urban | Urban | High | Resolved | Chennai | NOI-0158-001 | 1 | Chennai | ARR-0158-001 | Compromised | Not detected |
| 25000 | N/A | Inconclusive | MIN-0158-002 | EST-0158-002 | ARE-0158-002 | 2026-04-01 | Under investigation | Active | Inconclusive | 0 | Medium | Inconclusive | RES-0158-002 | True |
| Inconclusive | At large | False | High | Filed | Kolkata | WAT-0158-003 | 1 | Resolved | Inactive | | Kolkata | Inconclusive | Filed | 1 |
| 12.5 | Closed | Inactive | MIN-0158-004 | Not detected | N/A | Arrested | Under investigation | AIR-0158-004 | No | BLA-0158-004 | Delhi | ARR-0158-004 | Chennai | True |
| Pending | Medium | Active | MIN-0158-005 | Secure | False | 12.5 | VEG-0158-005 | Secure | Under investigation | 2026-04-01 | False | 85 | 42 | COM-0158-005 |
| Medium | Yes | Arrested | 2026-04-01 | Inconclusive | ARE-0158-006 | WAT-0158-006 | VEG-0158-006 | AIR-0158-006 | 3.5 | BLA-0158-006 | Bangalore | Under investigation | Inactive | |
| 1 | Chennai | 100000 | 100000 | 100000 | Inconclusive | High | VEG-0158-007 | Under investigation | Active | Unresolved | 1 | Yes | At large | 2026-04-15 |
| 0 | Bangalore | Resolved | False | Under investigation | 85 | 100000 | Positive | 3.5 | Urban | Negative | Urban | Inconclusive | Confirmed | 85 |
| 12.5 | Inactive | Negative | 0 | 12.5 | ARE-0158-009 | | VEG-0158-009 | At large | 85 | No | Positive | 42 | Dropped | 2026-04-01 |
| | Chennai | Confirmed | Arrested | EST-0158-010 | ARE-0158-010 | WAT-0158-010 | VEG-0158-010 | 25000 | Pending | Secure | Rural | ARR-0158-010 | Closed | N/A |


Full dataset: https://github.com/arora200/aplly_case_db/datasets/106-enviro-illegal-mining (synthetic, 14 records)

## Solution Frameworks
Source identification & dispersion reasoning, impact assessment, satellite/remote-sensing triangulation, regulatory checklist

## Solver Guidance & Tutorials
_Solver guidance added by the pipeline (tutorial links) — see `solver_guidance` field._

## What You'll Learn
- Attribute a source from scattered evidence
- Quantify impact with estimation
- Argue against your own hypothesis

## Tags
Illegal Mining, Remote Sensing, Environmental Crime, Geospatial Analysis

## Registration Links
Register as Solver / Register as Evaluator