Forest Fire Arson Pattern Analysis

20 fires over 2 years destroyed 2,000 hectares near land for conversion. Students will analyze fire origins and identify suspects through motive analysis.

# Aplly.xyz Case Study Submission

## Title
Forest Fire Arson Pattern Analysis

## Type
Environmental Crime Investigation

## Difficulty
Intermediate

## Estimated Time
60 minutes

## Overview
20 fires over 2 years destroyed 2,000 hectares near land for conversion. Students will analyze fire origins and identify suspects through motive analysis.

## Case Details

Function Focus: Environmental Crime Investigation — manual reasoning, decomposition, and critical judgment (no spreadsheet or AI tool permitted in Phase 1)

Scenario:
You are the analyst at a fictional consultancy ("Praxis Advisors") tasked with answering: Forest Fire Arson Pattern Analysis. You have a clean, synthetic dataset described below. You must produce a defensible answer using structured reasoning — no tool-assisted shortcut on the first pass.

Dataset Structure:
- incident_id
- date
- location
- forest_type
- area_burned_hectares
- fire_duration_hours
- cause_determined
- arson_suspected
- weather_conditions
- wind_speed_kmph
- humidity_pct
- temperature_celsius
- lightning_recorded
- human_activity_nearby
- evacuation_ordered
- suspect_identified
- suppression_cost_rs

Tasks:
1. List the records and separate evidence types; classify each as primary/secondary/circumstantial by hand.
2. Identify the most probable source/location using spatial or attribute clustering and distance/direction reasoning.
3. Quantify the scale of impact (area, volume, cost) with back-of-envelope estimation and explicit assumptions.
4. Evaluate the strongest counter-hypothesis (natural vs. man-made, accidental vs. deliberate) and decide using the data.
5. After your manual reasoning, cross-check the numbers with a calculator/spreadsheet and note discrepancies.

Expected Output:
A one-page investigation memo: source hypothesis, evidence classification, impact quantification, counter-hypothesis ruling.

Evaluation Criteria:
Quality of source attribution reasoning, correct scale quantification, balanced hypothesis evaluation.

## Data Sources

| incident_id | date | location | forest_type | area_burned_hectares | fire_duration_hours | cause_determined | arson_suspected | weather_conditions | wind_speed_kmph | humidity_pct | temperature_celsius | lightning_recorded | human_activity_nearby | evacuation_ordered | suspect_identified | suppression_cost_rs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inconclusive | Resolved | Secure | Active | 25000 | 2026-04-15 | Resolved | Urban | Inactive | Active | Detected | Mumbai | 100000 | HUM-0161-001 | EVA-0161-001 | Compromised | Rural |
| Mumbai | Unresolved | 42 | 85 | ARE-0161-002 | Resolved | CAU-0161-002 | 1 | Secure | Bangalore | Closed | TEM-0161-002 | Delhi | HUM-0161-002 | Yes | 12.5 | Under investigation |
| Bangalore | 1 | Resolved | Confirmed | True | Not detected | Confirmed | 2026-03-15 | Detected | Compromised | Rural | Unresolved | 1 | | EVA-0161-003 | Medium | Detected |
| N/A | DAT-0161-004 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 85 | 2026-03-15 | Active | Active | Filed | True | False | Inconclusive | 3.5 | HUM-0161-004 | EVA-0161-004 | Unresolved | No |
| 2026-03-15 | DAT-0161-005 | Unresolved | Active | ARE-0161-005 | 25000 | 2026-04-01 | 2026-04-01 | Kolkata | 100000 | | Not detected | Chennai | True | EVA-0161-005 | | 85 |
| At large | Active | Kolkata | Inactive | Filed | 100000 | At large | Under investigation | Detected | True | Delhi | Detected | 12.5 | Dropped | EVA-0161-006 | SUS-0161-006 | 100000 |
| Under investigation | Rural | Kolkata | Bangalore | Low | 1 | CAU-0161-007 | Inactive | Under investigation | 2026-04-15 | HUM-0161-007 | Negative | LIG-0161-007 | Chennai | Confirmed | Negative | Low |
| At large | Mumbai | 3.5 | Pending | Secure | 100000 | 25000 | Kolkata | Delhi | Closed | HUM-0161-008 | 0 | Rural | Negative | EVA-0161-008 | 2026-04-15 | SUP-0161-008 |
| Pending | 3.5 | 2026-04-15 | Negative | ARE-0161-009 | FIR-0161-009 | Inconclusive | Inactive | Low | Kolkata | Medium | Resolved | Under investigation | HUM-0161-009 | Arrested | 2026-04-15 | Kolkata |
| | Not detected | 3.5 | FOR-0161-010 | 42 | 85 | Closed | 100000 | No | 100000 | True | 42 | LIG-0161-010 | 2026-04-15 | Closed | SUS-0161-010 | Urban |


Full dataset: https://github.com/arora200/aplly_case_db/datasets/109-enviro-forest-fire-arson (synthetic, 12 records)

## Solution Frameworks
Source identification & dispersion reasoning, impact assessment, satellite/remote-sensing triangulation, regulatory checklist

## Solver Guidance & Tutorials
_Solver guidance added by the pipeline (tutorial links) — see `solver_guidance` field._

## What You'll Learn
- Attribute a source from scattered evidence
- Quantify impact with estimation
- Argue against your own hypothesis

## Tags
Forest Fire, Arson, Environmental Crime, Geographic Analysis

## Registration Links
Register as Solver / Register as Evaluator